Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Research output: Journal contributionsScientific review articlesResearch

Authors

  • Jake M. Alexander
  • Loïc Chalmandrier
  • Jonathan Lenoir
  • Treena I. Burgess
  • Franz Essl
  • Sylvia Haider
  • Christoph Kueffer
  • Keith McDougall
  • Ann Milbau
  • Martin A. Nuñez
  • Aníbal Pauchard
  • Wolfgang Rabitsch
  • Lisa J. Rew
  • Nathan J. Sanders
  • Loïc Pellissier

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

Original languageEnglish
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume24
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)563-579
Number of pages17
ISSN1354-1013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 07.11.2017
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

DOI

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Readings in applied organizational behavior from the Lüneburg Symposium
  2. A typology of actors and their strategies in multi-scale governance of wind turbine conflict within forests
  3. Das Amerikabild der Deutschen
  4. Testing of a Multiple Criteria Assessment Tool for Healthcare Facilities Quality and Sustainability
  5. Investigations for the detection of genotoxic substances on TLC plates
  6. Notting Hill Gate 4 Basic
  7. Reviewing is caring! Revaluing a critical, but invisibilized, underappreciated, and exploited academic practice
  8. Technical and economic assessment of food waste valorization through a biorefinery chain
  9. USA - Südwesten
  10. World in Transition: Sustainability Perspectives for Higher Education
  11. Distribution of brominated flame retardants and dechloranes between sediments and benthic fish - A comparison of a freshwater and marine habitat
  12. Elution of Monomers from Two Conventional Dental Composite Materials
  13. The Aging of the Unions in West Germany, 1980-2006
  14. An Imperfect Union?
  15. Gender and (Un)Sustainability—Can Communication Solve a Conflict of Norms?
  16. Marktorientierte Markenbewertung
  17. Universal Service in WTO and EU Law
  18. Internetbasierte Selbsthilfeprogramme unterstützen die Behandlung: depressive Störungen
  19. Culture and a cascading model of emotional intelligence
  20. Compositional variation in grassland plant communities
  21. Die Landung: SignalhochX (Projektbeschreibung)
  22. The European species of Chalarus Walker, 1834 revisited (Diptera: Pipunculidae)
  23. Hamburg’s Family Literacy Project (FLY) in the context of international trends and recent evaluation findings
  24. Surveying Southern Mongolia
  25. Cultivating a 'Digital Jungle':
  26. Implementing Sustainability in Higher Education
  27. Weltorientierung fängt in der Kita an!
  28. Mathematikbezogene Angst