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Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Übersichtsarbeiten › Forschung

Authors

  • Jake M. Alexander
  • Loïc Chalmandrier
  • Jonathan Lenoir
  • Treena I. Burgess
  • Franz Essl
  • Sylvia Haider
  • Christoph Kueffer
  • Keith McDougall
  • Ann Milbau
  • Martin A. Nuñez
  • Aníbal Pauchard
  • Wolfgang Rabitsch
  • Lisa J. Rew
  • Nathan J. Sanders
  • Loïc Pellissier
Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
ZeitschriftGlobal Change Biology
Jahrgang24
Ausgabenummer2
Seiten (von - bis)563-579
Anzahl der Seiten17
ISSN1354-1013
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 07.11.2017
Extern publiziertJa

Bibliographische Notiz

Funding Information:
MONB00363; Austrian Science Fund, Grant/ Award Number: I2096-B16

Funding Information:
H2020 European Research Council, Grant/ Award Number: 678841; Instituto de Ciencias Matemáticas, Grant/Award Number: P05-002; Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Grant/Award Number: PFB-23; National Science Foundation Dimensions of Biodiversity, Grant/Award Number: NSF- 1136703; Carlsbergfondet, Grant/Award Number: Carlsberg Foundation’s Semper Ardens program; National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Grant/Award Number:

Funding Information:
JMA, TIB, SH, JL, NJS and LP initiated discussions on the paper; LC and LP developed the simulation model; JMA led the writing; all authors contributed to discussions and revising drafts of the paper. This paper arose from a workshop “Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges” from 3 to 5 June 2015, organized by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) and supported through funding by the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) of the University of Bern (Switzerland), the Marcus Wallenberg Foundation for International Scientific Collaboration, the Oscar and Lili Lamms Remembrance Foundation, the Arctic Research Centre at Ume©a University (ARCUM), and the Climate Impacts Research Centre (CIRC). JMA received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 678841. FE was supported by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF, grant I2096-B16). LJR was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, US Department of Agriculture Hatch: MONB00363. NJS was supported by a National Science Foundation Dimensions of Biodiversity grant (NSF-1136703) and the Carlsberg Foundation through the Carlsberg Foundation’s Semper Ardens program. AP was supported by ICM P05-002 and CONICYT PFB-23. LP was supported by the NSF grant Nr. 31003A 162604 (Life3web project).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

    Fachgebiete

  • Biologie - alpine ecosystems, biotic interactions, climate change, climatic debt, migration, novel interactions, range dynamics, range expansion

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