Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings
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In: Urban Climate, Vol. 43, 101159, 01.05.2022.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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T1 - Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings
AU - Langendijk, Gaby S.
AU - Rechid, Diana
AU - Jacob, Daniela
PY - 2022/5/1
Y1 - 2022/5/1
N2 - Urban decision makers rely on evidence-based climate information tailored to their needs to adequately adapt and prepare for future climate change impacts. Regional climate models, with grid sizes between 10–50 km, are a useful outset to understand potential future climate change impacts in urban regions. Recently developed convection-permitting climate models have grid sizes smaller than 5 km, and better resolve atmospheric processes related to the land surface like convection, and complex terrain such as cities. This study investigates how the convection-permitting model REMO simulates changes in climate conditions in the urban-rural context, compared to its conventional hydrostatic version. We analyze three impact cases: influenza spread and survival; ragweed pollen dispersion; and indoor mold growth. Simulations are analyzed for the near future (2041–2050) under emission scenario RCP8.5. Taking the Berlin region as a testbed, we show that the change signal (positive or negative impact) reverses for the 3 km compared to the 12.5 km grid resolution for the impact cases pollen, and mold, indicating added value. For influenza, the convection-permitting resolution intensifies the decrease of influenza days under climate change. The results show the potential of convection-permitting simulations to generate improved information about climate change impacts for urban regions to support decision making.
AB - Urban decision makers rely on evidence-based climate information tailored to their needs to adequately adapt and prepare for future climate change impacts. Regional climate models, with grid sizes between 10–50 km, are a useful outset to understand potential future climate change impacts in urban regions. Recently developed convection-permitting climate models have grid sizes smaller than 5 km, and better resolve atmospheric processes related to the land surface like convection, and complex terrain such as cities. This study investigates how the convection-permitting model REMO simulates changes in climate conditions in the urban-rural context, compared to its conventional hydrostatic version. We analyze three impact cases: influenza spread and survival; ragweed pollen dispersion; and indoor mold growth. Simulations are analyzed for the near future (2041–2050) under emission scenario RCP8.5. Taking the Berlin region as a testbed, we show that the change signal (positive or negative impact) reverses for the 3 km compared to the 12.5 km grid resolution for the impact cases pollen, and mold, indicating added value. For influenza, the convection-permitting resolution intensifies the decrease of influenza days under climate change. The results show the potential of convection-permitting simulations to generate improved information about climate change impacts for urban regions to support decision making.
KW - Added value
KW - Berlin
KW - Climate change impact
KW - Convection-permitting model
KW - Humidity
KW - Influenza
KW - Mold
KW - Pollen
KW - Regional climate model
KW - Sustainability Governance
KW - Environmental Governance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85127284187&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/1d2ce157-c3f2-3f3b-a70a-31f96059e595/
U2 - 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159
DO - 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85127284187
VL - 43
JO - Urban Climate
JF - Urban Climate
SN - 2212-0955
M1 - 101159
ER -