Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor-Rule Setting

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Standard

Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor-Rule Setting. / Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J.
In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 119, No. 4, 10.2017, p. 987-1009.

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Harvard

APA

Vancouver

Bibtex

@article{a13d1adfd7d14f5b8d89db62d953b4f4,
title = "Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor-Rule Setting",
abstract = "Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.",
keywords = "Economics, Inflation expectations, interest-rate expectations, survey microdata, taylor rule, unemployment expectations",
author = "Lena Dr{\"a}ger and Lamla, {Michael J}",
year = "2017",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1111/sjoe.12217",
language = "English",
volume = "119",
pages = "987--1009",
journal = "The Scandinavian Journal of Economics",
issn = "0347-0520",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Explaining Disagreement on Interest Rates in a Taylor-Rule Setting

AU - Dräger, Lena

AU - Lamla, Michael J

PY - 2017/10

Y1 - 2017/10

N2 - Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.

AB - Most studies on disagreement focus on one specific variable, thereby neglecting the fact that disagreement can be co‐moving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper, we explore to what extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the theoretical concept of the Taylor rule. Using survey microdata for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. We further show that disagreement is significantly influenced by central bank transparency, as well as news on money and credit conditions.

KW - Economics

KW - Inflation expectations

KW - interest-rate expectations

KW - survey microdata

KW - taylor rule

KW - unemployment expectations

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032513984&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/sjoe.12217

DO - 10.1111/sjoe.12217

M3 - Journal articles

VL - 119

SP - 987

EP - 1009

JO - The Scandinavian Journal of Economics

JF - The Scandinavian Journal of Economics

SN - 0347-0520

IS - 4

ER -

DOI

Recently viewed

Publications

  1. Tree cover mediates the effect on rapeseed leaf damage of excluding predatory arthropods, but in an unexpected way
  2. Mapping Complexity in Environmental Governance
  3. Comparing Instrument-induced effects in EFL requests
  4. Detection of significant tracer gases by means of polymer gas sensors
  5. Is Calluna vulgaris a suitable bio-monitor of management-mediated nutrient pools in heathland ecosystems?
  6. Scaffolding, software and scenarios
  7. Bordering the Area of Spatial Relevance for Schools
  8. Common Ground and Development
  9. Towards a Model for Building Trust and Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence Aided Medical Assessment Systems
  10. Optimal grazing management rules in semi-arid rangelands with uncertain rainfall
  11. A sensitive microsystem as biosensor for cell growth monitoring and antibiotic testing
  12. The effectiveness of nudging
  13. Influences of yttrium content on microstructure and mechanical properties of as-cast Mg–Ca–Y–Zr alloys
  14. Absolute and relative maximum strength measures show differences in their correlations with sprint and jump performances in trained youth soccer players
  15. DECODING SUSTAINABILITY IN THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM. TEACHING STUDENTS HOW TO PROBLEMATIZE COMPLEX CONCEPTS
  16. The challenges of gamifying CSR communication
  17. Preference and willingness to pay for meat substitutes based on micro-algae
  18. Improved mechanical properties of cast Mg alloy welds via texture weakening by differential rotation refill friction stir spot welding
  19. The patterns of curriculum change processes that embed sustainability in higher education institutions
  20. Simultaneous Determination of 11 Sulfonamides by HPLC–UV and Application for Fast Screening of Their Aerobic Elimination and Biodegradation in a Simple Test
  21. The Role of Public Participation in Managing Uncertainty in the Implementation of the Water Framework Directive
  22. Determiner Ellipsis in Electronic Writing - Discourse or Syntax?
  23. Gehen in der Datenbank – Der BMLwalker
  24. Sustainability Transitions and the Spatial Interface: Developing Conceptual Perspectives
  25. Replik
  26. Organizing Colour
  27. Evaluation of a temporal causal model for predicting the mood of clients in an online therapy
  28. Almost-invariant sets and invariant manifolds
  29. Knowledge and social learning for sustainable development
  30. Norms and variation in L2 pragmatics
  31. Does Social Exclusion Improve Detection of Real and Fake Smiles?
  32. Medial erzeugte Befindlichkeiten
  33. Lifelong learning in practice at Leuphana University
  34. Productivity and size of the export market
  35. Repräsentative Wahlstatistik
  36. Using a leverage points perspective to compare social-ecological systems: a case study on rural landscapes
  37. Greater fit and a greater gap
  38. Case Study: Between radiation and imagination
  39. Formation mechanism of the abnormal texture during extrusion in Mg-Y-Sm-Zn-Zr alloy
  40. Article 6
  41. Continous preventive diagnosis for cardiovascular diseases based on stochastic modeling
  42. Anisotropic wavelet bases and thresholding
  43. AAL-Onto
  44. EU Normative Power and Regionalism