Convergence of adaptive learning and expectational stability: The case of multiple rational-expectations equilibria

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This paper analyzes the relationship between the expectational stability of rational expectations solutions and the possible convergence of adaptive learning processes. Both concepts are used as selection criteria in the case of multiple rational expectations solutions. Results obtained using recursive least squares lead to the conjecture that there exists a general one-to-one correspondence between these two selection criteria. On the
basis of a simple linear model and a stochastic gradient algorithm as an alternative learning procedure, it is demonstrated that such a conjecture would be incorrect: There are cases in which stochastic gradient learning converges to rational expectations solutions that are not expectationally stable.
Original languageEnglish
JournalMacroeconomic Dynamics
Issue number3
Pages (from-to)263-288
Number of pages26
Publication statusPublished - 01.09.2000
Externally publishedYes

    Research areas

  • Economics
  • Expectational stability, Learning, Multiple equilibria