An empirical agent-based model of consumer co-adoption of low-carbon technologies to inform energy policy

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • Mart van der Kam
  • Maria Lagomarsino
  • Elie Azar
  • Ulf J.J. Hahnel
  • David Parra

Identifying policy levers to accelerate the adoption of household energy technologies requires an integrative perspective, yet energy models have so far focused on the adoption of single technologies and single policies rather than co-adoption and policy mixes, respectively. Furthermore, experimental consumer data are underutilized in this field, limiting the capacity to study heterogeneous consumer responses to policies. Here, we report an interdisciplinary study addressing this gap by proposing an agent-based model on co-adoption of photovoltaic systems, electric vehicles, and heat pumps up to 2050. The model incorporates realistic consumer decision making and, importantly, is empirically grounded in experimental data of a large sample including 1,469 respondents. We simulate 16,834 policy mixes, which show that, even with decreasing investment costs, accelerating diffusion depends to a large extent on the specific policy mix. The findings moreover illustrate significant variation in adoption levels under identical policy conditions depending on income and political orientation.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100268
JournalCell Reports Sustainability
Volume1
Issue number12
Number of pages16
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20.12.2024
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s)

    Research areas

  • agent-based modeling, co-adoption, discrete choice experiments, energy transition, policy mixes, social simulation
  • Psychology