This research models physical changes in potential equilibrium carbon stocks from UK agro-ecosystems and woodland and changes in GHG fluxes from UK agricultural activates and agricultural land use change. The analysis is based on the CSERGE land use model run under the high and low UKCIP emissions climate change scenarios from the year 2004 to 2060. As well as modelling the physical changes (through time) in this climate regulating ecosystem service this research also applies marginal abatement costs and social cost of carbon valuations of carbon sequestration/emissions to this ecosystem service. The results suggest considerable changes in the physical provision of climate regulating ecosystem
services from UK terrestrial ecosystem over the next 50 years in response to climate change.
There is a predicted strong north/south divide, with agricultural GHG emissions per hectare increasing (and terrestrial carbon stocks decreasing) in the north of the UK and decreasing agricultural GHG emissions in the southern parts of the UK. Based on the UK’s official non market marginal abatement cost carbon price the cost of GHG emissions from agriculture are predicted to increase from £2.1 Billion per annum in 2004 to approximately £14 billion per annum in 2060 under both the high and low emission UKCIP climate change scenarios.