TY - JOUR

T1 - Using the three horizons approach to explore pathways towards positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity

AU - Schaal, Tamara

AU - Mitchell, Michael

AU - Scheele, Ben C.

AU - Ryan, Paul

AU - Hanspach, Jan

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

PY - 2023/5

Y1 - 2023/5

N2 - In light of the global challenges of the Anthropocene, including biodiversity loss, there are increasing calls for positive, inspirational futures to motivate action and help steer away from current, largely unsustainable trajectories. The three horizons framework is an approach in future studies that engages with normative futures and helps develop pathways towards them. However, this approach has not been applied to explore opportunities for biodiversity conservation with farming communities. We developed a template to apply the three horizons framework in combination with storytelling to explore positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity. We then applied this method over two workshops with a rural community in a farming landscape of south-eastern Australia facing typical contemporary challenges of an ageing population, climate change, biodiversity loss and global market uncertainty. In the workshops, six pathways for change were developed. We unpack these narratives of change to contrast problem framings, future aspirations and mechanisms of change and discuss implications for conservation. We discuss our approach to integrating diverse perspectives and values, creating actionable knowledge and highlight the role of governance and policy to support individual and collective agency. We conclude that the three horizons approach has the potential to create actionable knowledge through locally meaningful narratives of change, and thus influence priorities and empower local action. For lasting on-ground change, leadership and effective cross-scale governance is required.

AB - In light of the global challenges of the Anthropocene, including biodiversity loss, there are increasing calls for positive, inspirational futures to motivate action and help steer away from current, largely unsustainable trajectories. The three horizons framework is an approach in future studies that engages with normative futures and helps develop pathways towards them. However, this approach has not been applied to explore opportunities for biodiversity conservation with farming communities. We developed a template to apply the three horizons framework in combination with storytelling to explore positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity. We then applied this method over two workshops with a rural community in a farming landscape of south-eastern Australia facing typical contemporary challenges of an ageing population, climate change, biodiversity loss and global market uncertainty. In the workshops, six pathways for change were developed. We unpack these narratives of change to contrast problem framings, future aspirations and mechanisms of change and discuss implications for conservation. We discuss our approach to integrating diverse perspectives and values, creating actionable knowledge and highlight the role of governance and policy to support individual and collective agency. We conclude that the three horizons approach has the potential to create actionable knowledge through locally meaningful narratives of change, and thus influence priorities and empower local action. For lasting on-ground change, leadership and effective cross-scale governance is required.

KW - Biodiversity conservation

KW - Futures methods

KW - Narratives

KW - Storytelling

KW - Systems thinking

KW - Transformation

KW - Sustainability sciences, Communication

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85147381797&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/c41219ad-f764-3d4b-b9ea-6fb984921c73/

U2 - 10.1007/s11625-022-01275-z

DO - 10.1007/s11625-022-01275-z

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85147381797

VL - 18

SP - 1271

EP - 1289

JO - Sustainability Science

JF - Sustainability Science

SN - 1862-4065

IS - 3

ER -