TY - JOUR

T1 - Polycrisis patterns

T2 - applying system archetypes to crisis interactions

AU - Collste, David

AU - Apetrei, Cristina I.

AU - Booth Sweeney, Linda

AU - Boucher, Jessica Lynch

AU - Goh, Jenson Chong Leng

AU - Hamant, Olivier

AU - Mandl, Christoph E.

AU - Martin Mehers, Gillian S.

AU - Oda, Riichiro

AU - De Vries, Bert J.M.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Cambridge University Press.

PY - 2025/5/20

Y1 - 2025/5/20

N2 - Non-technical summary: The world is facing multiple interconnected crises, from climate change and economic instability to social inequalities and geopolitical tensions. These crises do not occur in isolation; instead, they interact, reinforce each other, and create unexpected ripple effects - forming what is known as a polycrisis. Traditional ways of analysing problems often fail to grasp these interdependencies, making it difficult to find effective responses. We draw on system archetypes to describe and exemplify three polycrisis patterns. These provide a structured way to analyse how multiple crises unfold and interact, as well as insights into how to navigate such complexity. Technical summary: The concept of a polycrisis describes the complex interconnections between global issues, which can lead to unexpected emergent behaviours and the possible convergence of undesirable impacts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating compounded effects and for identifying leverage points for effective intervention. We propose that system archetypes - generic structures in system dynamics that capture recurring patterns of behaviour - can serve as a useful analytical tool to study polycrises. Specifically, we reinterpret three key system archetypes in this context: Converging Constraints (based on the Limits to Growth system archetype), Deepening Divides (based on Success to the Successful system archetype), and Crisis Deferral (drawing from the Policy Resistance system archetype). These patterns illustrate how resource limitations, structural inequalities, and short-term solutions can sustain or worsen crisis dynamics. Using real-world examples, we show how polycrisis patterns can be employed to map feedback structures between interacting crises and to guide effective interventions. Our work contributes to a more structured and systemic understanding of polycrises, by providing a tool to help researchers and policymakers better anticipate, navigate, and mitigate their effects. Social media summary: 'Polycrisis patterns reveal how crises like climate change, economic instability, and inequality interact, amplifying their impacts'.

AB - Non-technical summary: The world is facing multiple interconnected crises, from climate change and economic instability to social inequalities and geopolitical tensions. These crises do not occur in isolation; instead, they interact, reinforce each other, and create unexpected ripple effects - forming what is known as a polycrisis. Traditional ways of analysing problems often fail to grasp these interdependencies, making it difficult to find effective responses. We draw on system archetypes to describe and exemplify three polycrisis patterns. These provide a structured way to analyse how multiple crises unfold and interact, as well as insights into how to navigate such complexity. Technical summary: The concept of a polycrisis describes the complex interconnections between global issues, which can lead to unexpected emergent behaviours and the possible convergence of undesirable impacts. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating compounded effects and for identifying leverage points for effective intervention. We propose that system archetypes - generic structures in system dynamics that capture recurring patterns of behaviour - can serve as a useful analytical tool to study polycrises. Specifically, we reinterpret three key system archetypes in this context: Converging Constraints (based on the Limits to Growth system archetype), Deepening Divides (based on Success to the Successful system archetype), and Crisis Deferral (drawing from the Policy Resistance system archetype). These patterns illustrate how resource limitations, structural inequalities, and short-term solutions can sustain or worsen crisis dynamics. Using real-world examples, we show how polycrisis patterns can be employed to map feedback structures between interacting crises and to guide effective interventions. Our work contributes to a more structured and systemic understanding of polycrises, by providing a tool to help researchers and policymakers better anticipate, navigate, and mitigate their effects. Social media summary: 'Polycrisis patterns reveal how crises like climate change, economic instability, and inequality interact, amplifying their impacts'.

KW - adaptation and mitigation

KW - communication and education

KW - complexity

KW - human behaviour

KW - planning and design

KW - policies

KW - politics and governance

KW - polycrisis

KW - system archetypes

KW - systems thinking

KW - Transdisciplinary studies

KW - Sustainability sciences, Communication

KW - Sustainability Science

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105005645105&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/sus.2025.21

DO - 10.1017/sus.2025.21

M3 - Scientific review articles

AN - SCOPUS:105005645105

VL - 8

JO - Global Sustainability

JF - Global Sustainability

SN - 2059-4798

M1 - e17

ER -