Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

Authors

Interest rate forecasts are widely used in the international financial services industry. For decades, both practitioners and academic researchers question the quality and usefulness of forecasts. Survey predictions do not only deliver point forecasts but also allow to draw conclusions with regard to the variety of forecasts provided by professional analysts. We evaluate the quality of interest rate forecasts for the three months interbank rate in the UK (LIBOR) and Germany (EURIBOR) as well as the corresponding 10Y government bond yields using the root mean squared error as well as the Theil's U measure and also apply models of time series analysis (i.e. cointegration and causality analysis). Finally, we check for possible implications from uncertainty measures (i.e. High-Low-Spread of forecasts as well as forecast errors) and structural breaks. We are able to find some links to the real economy. Applying our methodological approach both to the UK and Germany we are able to draw conclusions with regard to the quality of international forecasts in times of uncertainty.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
ZeitschriftJournal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
Jahrgang48
Seiten (von - bis)192-205
Anzahl der Seiten14
ISSN1042-4431
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 01.05.2017
Extern publiziertJa

Bibliographische Notiz

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Elsevier B.V.

DOI

Zuletzt angesehen

Aktivitäten

  1. Arizona State University
  2. 11. Ingenieurpädagogische Regionaltagung 2016 - Die Vielfalt der Wege zu technischer Bildung
  3. Indie Game Studies Year Eleven: panel at DiGRA - Defragging Game Studies - Atlanta, GA
  4. Fakultät Management und Technologie (Organisation)
  5. Konferenz des European Institute for the Development of Potential in All Children -IEDPE UK 1998
  6. Comfortable Time Headways under Different Visibility Conditions
  7. Mit uns die Zukunft
  8. Die Wiederentdeckung des Rechtschreibwortschatzes. Rechtschreibunterricht zwischen Politik, Praxis und Wissenschaft
  9. Fakultät Management und Technologie (Organisation)
  10. Normative Überlegungen zur klinischen Forschung an Kindern
  11. Ich sehe was, was du nicht siehst. Welche sprachlichen Verstehenshürden erkennen Lehramtsstudierende in einem fachlichen Erklärtext?
  12. The Concarnation of the Holy Spirit and the Incarnation of the Son: An Account of Divine Activity inspired by Thomas Erskine of Linlathen
  13. Waxmann Verlag (Verlag)
  14. Higher Education Research Conference - EFMD 2013
  15. »Cultural Aspects of National Socialism«. Reconsidering an unfinished project of the International Institute of Social Research
  16. Second European Communication Conference - ECREA 2008
  17. AI and School Education - Invited Talk at StS Rissen
  18. Finanzdienstleistungsworkshop - 2015
  19. Dispositives Internet-Storytelling: multimediale Konstitution des touristischen Blicks
  20. Gardens and aesthetics of sustainability
  21. Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien (Externe Organisation)