TY - JOUR

T1 - Drawing blanks and winning

T2 - Quantifying global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity

AU - Engler, John Oliver

AU - Fischer, Jan Niklas

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s)

PY - 2024/6/1

Y1 - 2024/6/1

N2 - In his Vulnerable World Hypothesis Nick Bostrom recently compared invention to drawing balls out of a giant urn containing at least one black ball (i.e. an invention that would destroy civilization). If this hypothesis is correct, there is a need to assess the global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. Here, drawing on the theory of zero-failure data, we develop two methods capable of addressing this question. The first method uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach, the second method focusses on analytical derivation of the survival function. Taking past global patenting activity as a proxy for human ingenuity, we draw on available patenting data and model different future scenarios for the annual number of technological inventions to provide upper boundaries (method 1) or point estimates (method 2) for the annual probability of pulling out a black ball for the next 1000 years. While there are clear limitations in terms of data and the urn model's conceptual framing, both methods successfully enable first approximations of global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity.

AB - In his Vulnerable World Hypothesis Nick Bostrom recently compared invention to drawing balls out of a giant urn containing at least one black ball (i.e. an invention that would destroy civilization). If this hypothesis is correct, there is a need to assess the global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. Here, drawing on the theory of zero-failure data, we develop two methods capable of addressing this question. The first method uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach, the second method focusses on analytical derivation of the survival function. Taking past global patenting activity as a proxy for human ingenuity, we draw on available patenting data and model different future scenarios for the annual number of technological inventions to provide upper boundaries (method 1) or point estimates (method 2) for the annual probability of pulling out a black ball for the next 1000 years. While there are clear limitations in terms of data and the urn model's conceptual framing, both methods successfully enable first approximations of global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity.

KW - Anthropic reasoning

KW - Existential risk

KW - Global catastrophic risk

KW - Human extinction

KW - Sustainability

KW - Vulnerable world hypothesis

KW - Sustainability Governance

KW - Sustainability sciences, Communication

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85184607216&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100165

DO - 10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100165

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85184607216

VL - 7

JO - Sustainable Futures

JF - Sustainable Futures

SN - 2666-1888

M1 - 100165

ER -