Drawing blanks and winning: Quantifying global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

Standard

Drawing blanks and winning: Quantifying global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. / Engler, John Oliver; Fischer, Jan Niklas.
in: Sustainable Futures, Jahrgang 7, 100165, 01.06.2024.

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

Harvard

APA

Vancouver

Engler JO, Fischer JN. Drawing blanks and winning: Quantifying global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. Sustainable Futures. 2024 Jun 1;7:100165. doi: 10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100165

Bibtex

@article{1c3fd528e51f4eddb9d3630c855e00ef,
title = "Drawing blanks and winning: Quantifying global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity",
abstract = "In his Vulnerable World Hypothesis Nick Bostrom recently compared invention to drawing balls out of a giant urn containing at least one black ball (i.e. an invention that would destroy civilization). If this hypothesis is correct, there is a need to assess the global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. Here, drawing on the theory of zero-failure data, we develop two methods capable of addressing this question. The first method uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach, the second method focusses on analytical derivation of the survival function. Taking past global patenting activity as a proxy for human ingenuity, we draw on available patenting data and model different future scenarios for the annual number of technological inventions to provide upper boundaries (method 1) or point estimates (method 2) for the annual probability of pulling out a black ball for the next 1000 years. While there are clear limitations in terms of data and the urn model's conceptual framing, both methods successfully enable first approximations of global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity.",
keywords = "Anthropic reasoning, Existential risk, Global catastrophic risk, Human extinction, Sustainability, Vulnerable world hypothesis, Sustainability Governance, Sustainability sciences, Communication",
author = "Engler, {John Oliver} and Fischer, {Jan Niklas}",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The Author(s)",
year = "2024",
month = jun,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100165",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
journal = "Sustainable Futures",
issn = "2666-1888",
publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Drawing blanks and winning

T2 - Quantifying global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity

AU - Engler, John Oliver

AU - Fischer, Jan Niklas

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s)

PY - 2024/6/1

Y1 - 2024/6/1

N2 - In his Vulnerable World Hypothesis Nick Bostrom recently compared invention to drawing balls out of a giant urn containing at least one black ball (i.e. an invention that would destroy civilization). If this hypothesis is correct, there is a need to assess the global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. Here, drawing on the theory of zero-failure data, we develop two methods capable of addressing this question. The first method uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach, the second method focusses on analytical derivation of the survival function. Taking past global patenting activity as a proxy for human ingenuity, we draw on available patenting data and model different future scenarios for the annual number of technological inventions to provide upper boundaries (method 1) or point estimates (method 2) for the annual probability of pulling out a black ball for the next 1000 years. While there are clear limitations in terms of data and the urn model's conceptual framing, both methods successfully enable first approximations of global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity.

AB - In his Vulnerable World Hypothesis Nick Bostrom recently compared invention to drawing balls out of a giant urn containing at least one black ball (i.e. an invention that would destroy civilization). If this hypothesis is correct, there is a need to assess the global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity. Here, drawing on the theory of zero-failure data, we develop two methods capable of addressing this question. The first method uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach, the second method focusses on analytical derivation of the survival function. Taking past global patenting activity as a proxy for human ingenuity, we draw on available patenting data and model different future scenarios for the annual number of technological inventions to provide upper boundaries (method 1) or point estimates (method 2) for the annual probability of pulling out a black ball for the next 1000 years. While there are clear limitations in terms of data and the urn model's conceptual framing, both methods successfully enable first approximations of global catastrophic risk associated with human ingenuity.

KW - Anthropic reasoning

KW - Existential risk

KW - Global catastrophic risk

KW - Human extinction

KW - Sustainability

KW - Vulnerable world hypothesis

KW - Sustainability Governance

KW - Sustainability sciences, Communication

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85184607216&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/f566f9c2-884a-3de4-804d-48ae1588730a/

U2 - 10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100165

DO - 10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100165

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:85184607216

VL - 7

JO - Sustainable Futures

JF - Sustainable Futures

SN - 2666-1888

M1 - 100165

ER -

DOI

Zuletzt angesehen

Forschende

  1. Maik Walpuski

Publikationen

  1. Jugend und Nachhaltigkeit
  2. Irreversibility and uncertainty cause an intergenerational equity-efficiency trade-off
  3. Shifting alliances: The radicalization of Sweden's mainstream right and implications for (social) democracy
  4. Agricultural Water Quality Control System Methods
  5. Perverse Bienen
  6. Behind Videoconferencing Fatigue at Work
  7. Single versus double materiality of corporate sustainability reporting
  8. IM OSTEN GEHT DIE SONNE AUF
  9. Independent decisions are fictional from a psychological perspective
  10. The politics of taxation in the European Union
  11. THE OCTOBER-REVOLUTION AS CYCLICAL SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION
  12. Climate Sceptics or Climate Nationalists? Understanding and Explaining Populist Radical Right Parties’ Positions towards Climate Change (1990–2022)
  13. Environmental Management Accounting for Cleaner Production: The Case of a Philippine Rice Mill
  14. Climate Change Litigation
  15. Controlling invasive plant species in ecological restoration
  16. Handbook of Research on Entrepreneurship in Professional Services
  17. Ärztliche Dienstleistung
  18. The Curator as Arts Administrator ?
  19. Die Privatisierung des Politischen bei Carl Schmitt
  20. Management in times of crisis
  21. Analysis, distribution and fate of PAH, polar PAHand NSO-heterocyclics in the aquifer of tar-contaminated sites
  22. Jenseits von Rente und Vollbeschäftigung
  23. Überlegungen zur analytischen Fallbeschreibung in der Sozialarbeit
  24. La matematizzazione dei plena
  25. From trade-offs to synergies in food security and biodiversity conservation
  26. Exports, R&D and Productivity in German Business Services Firms: A test of the Bustos-model
  27. Correction to: The art of crowdfunding arts and innovation: the cultural economic perspective
  28. Vergessene Zukunft
  29. Acoustic textures in distance perception
  30. The Rise of International Parliaments
  31. § 354 Verwirkungsklausel
  32. § 289c Inhalt der nichtfinanziellen Erklärung
  33. Lekcja 39-40