TY - JOUR

T1 - Crop rotation modelling

T2 - A European model intercomparison

AU - Kollas, Chris

AU - Kersebaum, Kurt Christian

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - Manevski, Kiril

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Palosuo, Taru

AU - Armas-Herrera, Cecilia M.

AU - Beaudoin, Nicolas

AU - Bindi, Marco

AU - Charfeddine, Monia

AU - Conradt, Tobias

AU - Constantin, Julie

AU - Eitzinger, Josef

AU - Ewert, Frank

AU - Ferrise, Roberto

AU - Gaiser, Thomas

AU - Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki Garcia de

AU - Giglio, Luisa

AU - Hlavinka, Petr

AU - Hoffmann, Holger

AU - Hoffmann, Munir P.

AU - Launay, Marie

AU - Manderscheid, Remy

AU - Mary, Bruno

AU - Mirschel, Wilfried

AU - Moriondo, Marco

AU - Olesen, Jørgen E.

AU - Öztürk, Isik

AU - Pacholski, Andreas

AU - Ripoche-Wachter, Dominique

AU - Roggero, Pier Paolo

AU - Roncossek, Svenja

AU - Rötter, Reimund P.

AU - Ruget, Françoise

AU - Sharif, Behzad

AU - Trnka, Mirek

AU - Ventrella, Domenico

AU - Waha, Katharina

AU - Wegehenkel, Martin

AU - Weigel, Hans Joachim

AU - Wu, Lianhai

PY - 2015/10

Y1 - 2015/10

N2 - Diversification of crop rotations is considered an option to increase the resilience of European crop production under climate change. So far, however, many crop simulation studies have focused on predicting single crops in separate one-year simulations. Here, we compared the capability of fifteen crop growth simulation models to predict yields in crop rotations at five sites across Europe under minimal calibration. Crop rotations encompassed 301 seasons of ten crop types common to European agriculture and a diverse set of treatments (irrigation, fertilisation, CO2 concentration, soil types, tillage, residues, intermediate or catch crops).We found that the continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yielded results of slightly higher quality compared to the simulation of single years and single crops. Intermediate crops (oilseed radish and grass vegetation) were simulated less accurately than main crops (cereals). The majority of models performed better for the treatments of increased CO2 and nitrogen fertilisation than for irrigation and soil-related treatments. The yield simulation of the multi-model ensemble reduced the error compared to single-model simulations.The low degree of superiority of continuous simulations over single year simulation was caused by (a) insufficiently parameterised crops, which affect the performance of the following crop, and (b) the lack of growth-limiting water and/or nitrogen in the crop rotations under investigation. In order to achieve a sound representation of crop rotations, further research is required to synthesise existing knowledge of the physiology of intermediate crops and of carry-over effects from the preceding to the following crop, and to implement/improve the modelling of processes that condition these effects.

AB - Diversification of crop rotations is considered an option to increase the resilience of European crop production under climate change. So far, however, many crop simulation studies have focused on predicting single crops in separate one-year simulations. Here, we compared the capability of fifteen crop growth simulation models to predict yields in crop rotations at five sites across Europe under minimal calibration. Crop rotations encompassed 301 seasons of ten crop types common to European agriculture and a diverse set of treatments (irrigation, fertilisation, CO2 concentration, soil types, tillage, residues, intermediate or catch crops).We found that the continuous simulation of multi-year crop rotations yielded results of slightly higher quality compared to the simulation of single years and single crops. Intermediate crops (oilseed radish and grass vegetation) were simulated less accurately than main crops (cereals). The majority of models performed better for the treatments of increased CO2 and nitrogen fertilisation than for irrigation and soil-related treatments. The yield simulation of the multi-model ensemble reduced the error compared to single-model simulations.The low degree of superiority of continuous simulations over single year simulation was caused by (a) insufficiently parameterised crops, which affect the performance of the following crop, and (b) the lack of growth-limiting water and/or nitrogen in the crop rotations under investigation. In order to achieve a sound representation of crop rotations, further research is required to synthesise existing knowledge of the physiology of intermediate crops and of carry-over effects from the preceding to the following crop, and to implement/improve the modelling of processes that condition these effects.

KW - Catch crop

KW - Crop simulation models

KW - Intermediate crop

KW - Model ensemble

KW - Multi-year

KW - Treatment

KW - Sustainability Science

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84939477063&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.eja.2015.06.007

DO - 10.1016/j.eja.2015.06.007

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:84939477063

VL - 70

SP - 98

EP - 111

JO - European Journal of Agronomy

JF - European Journal of Agronomy

SN - 1161-0301

ER -