TY - CHAP

T1 - Climate Change May Trigger Broad Shifts in North America's Pacific Coastal Rainforests

AU - DellaSala, D.A.

AU - Brandt, P.

AU - Koopman, M.

AU - Leonard, J.

AU - Meisch, Claude

AU - Herzog, P.

AU - Alaback, P.

AU - Goldstein, M.I.

AU - Jovan, S.

AU - MacKinnon, A.

AU - von Wehrden, H.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - Climate change poses significant threats to Pacific coastal rainforests of North America. Land managers currently lack a coordinated climate change adaptation approach with which to prepare the region's globally outstanding biodiversity for accelerating change. We provided analyses intended to inform coordinated adaptation for eight focal rainforest tree species of commercial importance and broad rainforest communities. By using two different approaches to determine vulnerability, including climate envelope modeling (Maxent) and the MC1 dynamic vegetation model, we were able to assess where Pacific coastal rainforests might be more stable over time. We examined vegetation stability based on climate projections and used protected areas and intact late-seral forest data to determine priority areas and current level of protections. Based on model outputs, focal rainforest conifers and general rainforest communities are more likely to persist and to expand their ranges along northern range margins while southern margins exhibited lower persistence and potential loss of suitable climate. Robust reserve design for temperate rainforests should include current and future late-seral forests as potential climate refugia to accommodate projected shifts in species of commercial and ecological importance.

AB - Climate change poses significant threats to Pacific coastal rainforests of North America. Land managers currently lack a coordinated climate change adaptation approach with which to prepare the region's globally outstanding biodiversity for accelerating change. We provided analyses intended to inform coordinated adaptation for eight focal rainforest tree species of commercial importance and broad rainforest communities. By using two different approaches to determine vulnerability, including climate envelope modeling (Maxent) and the MC1 dynamic vegetation model, we were able to assess where Pacific coastal rainforests might be more stable over time. We examined vegetation stability based on climate projections and used protected areas and intact late-seral forest data to determine priority areas and current level of protections. Based on model outputs, focal rainforest conifers and general rainforest communities are more likely to persist and to expand their ranges along northern range margins while southern margins exhibited lower persistence and potential loss of suitable climate. Robust reserve design for temperate rainforests should include current and future late-seral forests as potential climate refugia to accommodate projected shifts in species of commercial and ecological importance.

KW - Sustainability Science

KW - Climate change

KW - Commercial conifers

KW - Distribution shifts

KW - Rainforest assemblages

KW - Temperate rainforests

KW - Climate change

KW - Commercial conifers

KW - Distribution shifts

KW - Rainforest assemblages

KW - Temperate rainforests

KW - Ecosystems Research

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85063638207&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/b978-0-12-809665-9.09367-8

DO - 10.1016/b978-0-12-809665-9.09367-8

M3 - Chapter

SN - 9780128135761

VL - 1-5

T3 - Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene

SP - 233

EP - 244

BT - Encyclopedia of the Anthropocene

A2 - Dellasala, Dominick A.

A2 - Goldstein, Michael I.

PB - Elsevier B.V.

CY - Oxford

ER -