Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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in: Journal of Monetary Economics, Jahrgang 108, 12.2019, S. 21-38.
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Central bank announcements
T2 - Big news for little people?
AU - Lamla, Michael J.
AU - Vinogradov, Dmitri V.
PY - 2019/12
Y1 - 2019/12
N2 - Little is known on how and whether central bank announcements affect consumers’ beliefs about policy-relevant economic figures. This paper focuses on consumers’ perceptions and expectations of inflation and interest rates and confidence therein. Based on a sound identification (running surveys shortly before and after communication events), and relying on above 15,000 observations, spanning over 12 FOMC press conferences between December 2015 and June 2018, we document the impact of the central bank communication on the general public. While announcement events have no measurable direct effect on average beliefs, they make people more likely to receive news about the central bank's policy. In general, informed consumers tend to have lower perceptions and expectations, higher confidence and, at least for perceived inflation, smaller errors.
AB - Little is known on how and whether central bank announcements affect consumers’ beliefs about policy-relevant economic figures. This paper focuses on consumers’ perceptions and expectations of inflation and interest rates and confidence therein. Based on a sound identification (running surveys shortly before and after communication events), and relying on above 15,000 observations, spanning over 12 FOMC press conferences between December 2015 and June 2018, we document the impact of the central bank communication on the general public. While announcement events have no measurable direct effect on average beliefs, they make people more likely to receive news about the central bank's policy. In general, informed consumers tend to have lower perceptions and expectations, higher confidence and, at least for perceived inflation, smaller errors.
KW - Economics
KW - Central bank communication
KW - Consumers
KW - Expectations
KW - Perceptions
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071984658&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/0a58bb96-7614-3507-bb59-d595b1246105/
U2 - 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.014
DO - 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.014
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85071984658
VL - 108
SP - 21
EP - 38
JO - Journal of Monetary Economics
JF - Journal of Monetary Economics
SN - 0304-3932
ER -