Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy

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This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy shifts on Treasuries over the last three decades. We decompose unexpected excess returns on 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries in three components related to revisions in expectations (news) about future excess returns, inflation, and real interest rates. We evaluate the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on returns and their components. Our results indicate that expansionary monetary policy shocks are associated with declining inflation expectations and higher Treasuries' returns.

Original languageEnglish
JournalInternational Journal of Finance and Economics
Volume24
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)1506-1519
Number of pages14
ISSN1076-9307
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 01.10.2019
Externally publishedYes

    Research areas

  • Economics - bond market variance decomposition, financial crisis, monetary policy

DOI

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