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The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters

Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review

Standard

The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. / Lamla, Michael J.; Maag, Thomas.
In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, No. 7, 01.10.2012, p. 1325-1350.

Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Lamla, MJ & Maag, T 2012, 'The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters', Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 44, no. 7, pp. 1325-1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x

APA

Lamla, M. J., & Maag, T. (2012). The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(7), 1325-1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x

Vancouver

Lamla MJ, Maag T. The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 2012 Oct 1;44(7):1325-1350. doi: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x

Bibtex

@article{2c372d7090c44da7a60aee9bd577f2ef,
title = "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters",
abstract = "This paper investigates the effects of media coverage about consumer price inflation on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the heterogeneity of story content and on the reporting intensity, especially of news on rising inflation. Disagreement of professional forecasters does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables, we provide evidence that disagreement of professional forecasters primarily depends on the inflation rate and on inflation volatility. The response of households to inflation is much less pronounced.",
keywords = "Economics, Forecast disagreement, Inflation expectations, Media coverage",
author = "Lamla, {Michael J.} and Thomas Maag",
year = "2012",
month = oct,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x",
language = "English",
volume = "44",
pages = "1325--1350",
journal = "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking",
issn = "0022-2879",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.",
number = "7",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters

AU - Lamla, Michael J.

AU - Maag, Thomas

PY - 2012/10/1

Y1 - 2012/10/1

N2 - This paper investigates the effects of media coverage about consumer price inflation on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the heterogeneity of story content and on the reporting intensity, especially of news on rising inflation. Disagreement of professional forecasters does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables, we provide evidence that disagreement of professional forecasters primarily depends on the inflation rate and on inflation volatility. The response of households to inflation is much less pronounced.

AB - This paper investigates the effects of media coverage about consumer price inflation on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depends on the heterogeneity of story content and on the reporting intensity, especially of news on rising inflation. Disagreement of professional forecasters does not depend on media coverage. With respect to the influence of macroeconomic variables, we provide evidence that disagreement of professional forecasters primarily depends on the inflation rate and on inflation volatility. The response of households to inflation is much less pronounced.

KW - Economics

KW - Forecast disagreement

KW - Inflation expectations

KW - Media coverage

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84866557520&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/ce95a57b-e3e9-3378-8360-2e77e1e1bf08/

U2 - 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00534.x

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:84866557520

VL - 44

SP - 1325

EP - 1350

JO - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

JF - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

SN - 0022-2879

IS - 7

ER -

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Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review

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Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review

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Research output: Working paper › Working papers

DOI

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