The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval: A Survey
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München: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Center for Economic Studies , 2012. (CESifo Working Paper Series; No. 3761).
Research output: Working paper › Working papers
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TY - UNPB
T1 - The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval
T2 - A Survey
AU - Berlemann, Michael
AU - Enkelmann, Sören
PY - 2012/3
Y1 - 2012/3
N2 - Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States finda significant effect of unemployment and inflation on pr esidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment, inflation and the budget deficit to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.
AB - Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States finda significant effect of unemployment and inflation on pr esidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment, inflation and the budget deficit to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.
KW - Economics
KW - presidential popularity
KW - approval
KW - unemployment
KW - inflation
M3 - Working papers
T3 - CESifo Working Paper Series
BT - The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval
PB - Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Center for Economic Studies
CY - München
ER -