Reaching national Kyoto targets in Germany and sustainable development
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
Standard
In: Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 4, No. 4, 01.12.2002, p. 371-390.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - Reaching national Kyoto targets in Germany and sustainable development
AU - Bayer, Stefan
AU - Kemfert, Claudia
PY - 2002/12/1
Y1 - 2002/12/1
N2 - Within this paper, we analyze the fulfillment of the Kyoto emissions reduction commitment particularly in Germany and its implication on the long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex-B countries, must reduce its emissions by 2010 according to what we call a "Kyoto Forever" scenario. We specifically investigate tradable permits as reduction measures in a national overlapping generations (OLG) model, where we change the discounting technique by using generation adjusted discounting (GAD) in comparison to conventional OLG discounting. We show that within our model framework Germany is able to develop along growing paths of, for example, gross domestic product (GDP) in sharp contrast to conventional results of OLG simulations. At the same time, current generations must share higher burdens in terms of lower GDP, per capita consumption and employment which can be initially interpreted as contemporary costs for reaching sustainable paths and, second, contributions for internalizing external effects. However, all costs in terms of lower macro-variables for current living generations are re-compensated through higher future values. This effect can be interpreted as an intergenerational application of full cost bearance, or, in other words, the "polluter pays" principle which is oriented towards sustainability of greenhouse gases abatement.
AB - Within this paper, we analyze the fulfillment of the Kyoto emissions reduction commitment particularly in Germany and its implication on the long-term paths of all macro-variables. Germany, like all other industrial or Annex-B countries, must reduce its emissions by 2010 according to what we call a "Kyoto Forever" scenario. We specifically investigate tradable permits as reduction measures in a national overlapping generations (OLG) model, where we change the discounting technique by using generation adjusted discounting (GAD) in comparison to conventional OLG discounting. We show that within our model framework Germany is able to develop along growing paths of, for example, gross domestic product (GDP) in sharp contrast to conventional results of OLG simulations. At the same time, current generations must share higher burdens in terms of lower GDP, per capita consumption and employment which can be initially interpreted as contemporary costs for reaching sustainable paths and, second, contributions for internalizing external effects. However, all costs in terms of lower macro-variables for current living generations are re-compensated through higher future values. This effect can be interpreted as an intergenerational application of full cost bearance, or, in other words, the "polluter pays" principle which is oriented towards sustainability of greenhouse gases abatement.
KW - Climate change
KW - Discounting
KW - Kyoto targets
KW - OLG models
KW - Sustainability
KW - Economics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0037780454&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1023/A:1024189622599
DO - 10.1023/A:1024189622599
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:0037780454
VL - 4
SP - 371
EP - 390
JO - Environment, Development and Sustainability
JF - Environment, Development and Sustainability
SN - 1387-585X
IS - 4
ER -