Improving Flood Forecasting in a Developing Country: A Comparative Study of Stepwise Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network

Research output: Journal contributionsJournal articlesResearchpeer-review

Authors

Due to limited data sources, practical situations in most developing countries favor black-box models in real time operations. In a simple and robust approach, this study examines performances of stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models, as tools for multi-step forecasting Chindwin River floods in northern Myanmar. Future river stages are modeled using past water levels and rainfall at the forecasting station as well as at the hydrologically connected upstream station. The developed models are calibrated with flood season data from 1990 to 2007 and validated with data from 2008 to 2011. Model performances are compared for 1- to 5-day ahead forecasts. With a high accuracy, both candidate models performed well for forecasting the full range of flood levels. The ANN models were superior to the SMLR models, particularly in predicting the extreme floods. Correlation analysis was found to be useful for determining the initial input variables. Contribution of upstream data to both models could improve the forecasting performance with higher R 2 values and lower errors. Considering the commonly available data in the region as primary predictors, the results would be useful for real time flood forecasting, avoiding the complexity of physical processes.

Original languageEnglish
JournalWater Resources Management
Volume28
Issue number8
Pages (from-to)2109-2128
Number of pages20
ISSN0920-4741
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 06.2014

    Research areas

  • Environmental planning - Artificial neural network, Flood forecast, Rainfall, Real time operation, Stepwise regression, Water level

Recently viewed

Activities

  1. Draw the line? How boundary creation behaviors at the end of work relate to recovery and next-day work performance
  2. Digital Capitalism meets Leberkaspeppi: Temporal Orientations in Business Models as a Source of Platform Power in Mature Industries
  3. Interstitial spaces as garbage cans of early phase innovation processes
  4. Predicting Performance And Motivation In Teacher Education – The Role Of Opportunities To Learn, Intrinsic Needs And Perceived Self-efficacy
  5. Flexible Lernwege: Studium Individuale
  6. The Relationship between Innovation and Creativity
  7. Sound is not the Score
  8. Three steps forward, two steps backward: How distributed field governance causes incremental practice change in the case of integrated health care in Germany
  9. A vehicle-crew-scheduling-and-rostering approach for improving driver satisfaction in public bus transport
  10. Procedural-Framing Effects in Negotiations: It's not just What You Propose but How You Frame it
  11. Appropriating Digital Transformation: Transformative Ideas about Technology
  12. Sub-Plenary: Partial Organization: Perspectives, Promises and Pitfalls after a Decade of Research
  13. Digital Transformation and Digital Business
  14. HyperKult XXI. 2012
  15. Organizing Sustainably
  16. What if Civilization Collapses? Management Scholarship in and for Deep Adaption
  17. Make academia meaningful again: A conversation on research, cocreation and impact
  18. Current Developments in Environmental Management Accounting: Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Environmental Management Accounting
  19. Organizing temporary co-presence to induce and cope with uncertainty in creative processes
  20. Presentation: Nexus of Housing and Migration
  21. Hyperkult XXV - 2015
  22. International Conference of Mathematical Modelling and Applications - ICTMA 17
  23. Analyzing Digital Markets as Fields
  24. Mapping Urban Information as an Interdisciplinary Method for Geography, Art and Architecture Representations
  25. Extending Working Lives in Organizations: The Later Life Workplace Index for Successful Management of an Aging Workforce
  26. International Workshop: Qualitative Methodology in Contemporary History and Related Fields - 2009
  27. 'Re': Zu Ästhetiken der Wiederholung 2011
  28. HyperKult XVIII - Computer als Medium: The Cloud
  29. Sub-Plenary Partial Organization: Perspectives, Promises and Pitfalls after a Decade of Research
  30. Robots versus Machines
  31. 37th EGOS Colloquium - EGOS 2021
  32. 34th EGOS Colloquium - EGOS 2018
  33. 7th Austrian Early Scholars Workshop in Management
  34. Komponieren analog oder digital? Podiumsdiskussion
  35. Responsivität als transdisziplinäres Forschungsprinzip?