Extreme Bounds of Democracy
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 57, No. 2, 04.2013, p. 171-197.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Extreme Bounds of Democracy
AU - Gassebner, Martin
AU - Lamla, Michael J.
AU - Vreeland, James Raymond
PY - 2013/4
Y1 - 2013/4
N2 - What determines the emergence and survival of democracy? The authors apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of fifty-nine factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over three million regressions with data from 165 countries from 1976 to 2002. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are gross domestic product (GDP) growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil-producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.
AB - What determines the emergence and survival of democracy? The authors apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of fifty-nine factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over three million regressions with data from 165 countries from 1976 to 2002. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are gross domestic product (GDP) growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil-producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.
KW - Economics
KW - Democracy
KW - dictatorship
KW - political regime
KW - transitions
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84874763912&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0022002712446132
DO - 10.1177/0022002712446132
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:84874763912
VL - 57
SP - 171
EP - 197
JO - Journal of Conflict Resolution
JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution
SN - 0022-0027
IS - 2
ER -