EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
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In: Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 14, No. 2, 04.2014, p. 563-578.
Research output: Journal contributions › Journal articles › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - EURO-CORDEX
T2 - New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
AU - Jacob, Daniela
AU - Petersen, Juliane
AU - Eggert, Bastian
AU - Alias, Antoinette
AU - Christensen, Ole Bøssing
AU - Bouwer, Laurens M.
AU - Braun, Alain
AU - Colette, Augustin
AU - Déqué, Michel
AU - Georgievski, Goran
AU - Georgopoulou, Elena
AU - Gobiet, Andreas
AU - Menut, Laurent
AU - Nikulin, Grigory
AU - Haensler, Andreas
AU - Hempelmann, Nils
AU - Jones, Colin
AU - Keuler, Klaus
AU - Kovats, Sari
AU - Kröner, Nico
AU - Kotlarski, Sven
AU - Kriegsmann, Arne
AU - Martin, Eric
AU - van Meijgaard, Erik
AU - Moseley, Christopher
AU - Pfeifer, Susanne
AU - Preuschmann, Swantje
AU - Radermacher, Christine
AU - Radtke, Kai
AU - Rechid, Diana
AU - Rounsevell, Mark
AU - Samuelsson, Patrick
AU - Somot, Samuel
AU - Soussana, Jean Francois
AU - Teichmann, Claas
AU - Valentini, Riccardo
AU - Vautard, Robert
AU - Weber, Björn
AU - Yiou, Pascal
PY - 2014/4
Y1 - 2014/4
N2 - A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.
AB - A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.
KW - Dry spells
KW - EURO-CORDEX
KW - Heat wave
KW - Heavy precipitation
KW - Impact indices
KW - Regional climate change
KW - Environmental Governance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84897025478&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
DO - 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:84897025478
VL - 14
SP - 563
EP - 578
JO - Regional Environmental Change
JF - Regional Environmental Change
SN - 1436-3798
IS - 2
ER -