Crude oil: Market trends and simulations point toward stable equilibrium

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Crude oil: Market trends and simulations point toward stable equilibrium. / Zaklan, Aleksandar; Ansari, Dawud; Kemfert, Claudia.
In: DIW Economic Bulletin, Vol. 7, No. 51/52, 2017, p. 567-573.

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@article{22829f8599954817adcdc9692a34e9d8,
title = "Crude oil: Market trends and simulations point toward stable equilibrium",
abstract = "In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side shifts should only have moderate price effects. This applies to both an expansion in U.S. shale oil production and a disruption of production in OPEC countries. Market data and simulations indicate that the crude oil market is currently in a new equilibrium that appears to be relatively robust in the short term. In the absence of further shocks, we can continue to expect a moderate price level for crude oil in the short term with corresponding implications for economic and climate policy.",
keywords = "Economics, crude oil markets, equilibrium modeling, tight oil, shale oil, OPEC",
author = "Aleksandar Zaklan and Dawud Ansari and Claudia Kemfert",
year = "2017",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "567--573",
journal = "DIW Economic Bulletin",
issn = "2192-7219",
publisher = "Deutsches Institut f{\"u}r Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)",
number = "51/52",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Crude oil

T2 - Market trends and simulations point toward stable equilibrium

AU - Zaklan, Aleksandar

AU - Ansari, Dawud

AU - Kemfert, Claudia

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side shifts should only have moderate price effects. This applies to both an expansion in U.S. shale oil production and a disruption of production in OPEC countries. Market data and simulations indicate that the crude oil market is currently in a new equilibrium that appears to be relatively robust in the short term. In the absence of further shocks, we can continue to expect a moderate price level for crude oil in the short term with corresponding implications for economic and climate policy.

AB - In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side shifts should only have moderate price effects. This applies to both an expansion in U.S. shale oil production and a disruption of production in OPEC countries. Market data and simulations indicate that the crude oil market is currently in a new equilibrium that appears to be relatively robust in the short term. In the absence of further shocks, we can continue to expect a moderate price level for crude oil in the short term with corresponding implications for economic and climate policy.

KW - Economics

KW - crude oil markets

KW - equilibrium modeling

KW - tight oil

KW - shale oil

KW - OPEC

M3 - Journal articles

VL - 7

SP - 567

EP - 573

JO - DIW Economic Bulletin

JF - DIW Economic Bulletin

SN - 2192-7219

IS - 51/52

ER -

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