Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes

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Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development.
Original languageEnglish
Article number35
JournalElementa
Volume7
Number of pages19
ISSN2325-1026
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 04.09.2019
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers of the manuscript for their insightful comments and suggestions for strengthening the paper. Laura Pereira, Nadia Sitas and Amanda Jiménez-Aceituno would like to acknowledge support from the Sida funded Guidance for Resilience in the Anthropocene: Investments for Development (GRAID) project at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden. The work of Federica Ravera was financed by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (Spain) (IJCI-2015-25586) and by AXA Research Fund (2017-2019). Andrew Merrie’s work was supported by MISTRA (The Swedish foundation for strategic environmental research) through a core grant to the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University and, a Science communications grant from FORMAS (Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development) in support of the Radical Ocean Futures project at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. Laura Pereira’s work is based on research supported in part by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Numbers 115300). The authors would also like to acknowledge the Bright Spots: Seeds of Good Anthropocenes project and the contributions made by all of those that took part in the Stellenbosch workshop in November 2016. We would also like to thank all the people in the Colectivo Artístico, CACTUS, for being the body of knowledge, especially those who were involved in the creation of AKWA. We further acknowledge Robbie Coleman, Jo Hodges and Michael Bonaventura who are the producers of the Museums of the Future Now project for sharing such an inspiring initiative during the workshop Realizing potentials: conversations and experiments at the frontiers of arts-based sustainability, held in Barcelona in November 2016. Figure design credit: Jerker Lokrantz/Azote.

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Copyright: © 2019 The Author(s)

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