TY - UNPB

T1 - The political deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

AU - Attia, Hana

AU - Saleh, Mona

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. The GERD has become a new reality challenging the traditional dynamics in the Nile River Basin. Three key factors can explain the current deadlock. The three parties entered the negotiations with different needs and objectives. These different positions have historical roots and are part of the respective countries’ traditional approaches to Nile Basin management. The GERD is situated in a geopolitical hotspot. The region is turning into a competition stage for external actors over its natural resources, such as oil, natural gas, hydropower, and precious metals. It is a region evincing a number of overlapping conflicts, with alliances forming across conflicts that are becoming hard to separate. The region also hosts external armed forces from over a dozen countries, including the United States, France, and China. This creates partisanship in terms of which country external actors support. The domestic costs of the negotiations for the three countries are high. State leaders tied their own hands in the negotiation process by adopting nationalist rhetoric to make domestic gains. The political climate is also fragile, with intra­state and border disputes leading to waning trust and increased accusations of meddling. Policy ImplicationsSince the Ethiopian general elections in June, a window of opportunity hasopened. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan should seize it to engage in effective negotia-tions, as it is the only way forward. The international community, including EUcountries with interests in the region, should play an active role to avoid escala-tion in a fragile region. They should exhaust various foreign policy tools, using astrategy of mixing carrots and sticks

AB - The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. The GERD has become a new reality challenging the traditional dynamics in the Nile River Basin. Three key factors can explain the current deadlock. The three parties entered the negotiations with different needs and objectives. These different positions have historical roots and are part of the respective countries’ traditional approaches to Nile Basin management. The GERD is situated in a geopolitical hotspot. The region is turning into a competition stage for external actors over its natural resources, such as oil, natural gas, hydropower, and precious metals. It is a region evincing a number of overlapping conflicts, with alliances forming across conflicts that are becoming hard to separate. The region also hosts external armed forces from over a dozen countries, including the United States, France, and China. This creates partisanship in terms of which country external actors support. The domestic costs of the negotiations for the three countries are high. State leaders tied their own hands in the negotiation process by adopting nationalist rhetoric to make domestic gains. The political climate is also fragile, with intra­state and border disputes leading to waning trust and increased accusations of meddling. Policy ImplicationsSince the Ethiopian general elections in June, a window of opportunity hasopened. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan should seize it to engage in effective negotia-tions, as it is the only way forward. The international community, including EUcountries with interests in the region, should play an active role to avoid escala-tion in a fragile region. They should exhaust various foreign policy tools, using astrategy of mixing carrots and sticks

KW - Internationale Politik

KW - Internationaler Konflikt

KW - Einflussgröße

KW - Sudan

KW - Staudamm

KW - Mediation

KW - Geopolitik

KW - Energiewirtschaft

KW - Konflikt

KW - Wasserbedarf

KW - Wasser

KW - Energieerzeugung

KW - Verteilungskampf

KW - Wasserreserve

KW - Internationale Kooperation

KW - Politics

M3 - Working papers

T3 - GIGA Focus Africa

BT - The political deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

PB - GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies

CY - Hamburg

ER -