An analytical model for a ball burnishing process is developed, which allows a prediction of the roughness of a thermally sprayed coating after a post treatment. Based on the observation of a roughness peak, a correlation between the leveling during rolling and the surface pressure under the rolling ball as well as a material parameter is derived and made mathematically describable. The model is verified by experimental studies with various rolling parameters and materials. The agreement between the experimental data and the calculated values is satisfactory.