TY - JOUR

T1 - MARKET DRIVEN POWER PLANT INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES in Europe

T2 - CLIMATE POLICY and TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS until 2050 in the MODEL EMELIE-ESY

AU - Schröder, A.

AU - Traber, T.

AU - Kemfert, C.

N1 - Funding Information: †Corresponding author. †The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from Stiftung Mercator. This is an Open Access article published by World Scientific Publishing Company. It is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 (CC-BY) License. Further distribution of this work is permitted, provided the original work is properly cited. Publisher Copyright: © 2013 The Authors.

PY - 2013/11/1

Y1 - 2013/11/1

N2 - In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities on the European power markets. We use the partial equilibrium model EMELIE-ESY with focus on electricity markets in order to determine how private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and operation over the horizon 2010 to 2050. For the year 2050, the model projects a minor increase of power consumption of 10% under current climate policy, and a balanced pathway for consumption under ambitious climate policy compared to 2010 levels. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models that predict strong consumption increases of 44% to 48% by 2050 and claim competitiveness of nuclear power and CCS options. Under ambitious climate policy, our findings correspond with major increases of wholesale electricity market prices and comparatively less pronounced emission price increases, which trigger no investments into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a strongly diminishing share of nuclear energy.

AB - In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities on the European power markets. We use the partial equilibrium model EMELIE-ESY with focus on electricity markets in order to determine how private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and operation over the horizon 2010 to 2050. For the year 2050, the model projects a minor increase of power consumption of 10% under current climate policy, and a balanced pathway for consumption under ambitious climate policy compared to 2010 levels. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models that predict strong consumption increases of 44% to 48% by 2050 and claim competitiveness of nuclear power and CCS options. Under ambitious climate policy, our findings correspond with major increases of wholesale electricity market prices and comparatively less pronounced emission price increases, which trigger no investments into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a strongly diminishing share of nuclear energy.

KW - Economics

KW - climate policy

KW - Electricity markets

KW - investment

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84937533179&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1142/S2010007813400071

DO - 10.1142/S2010007813400071

M3 - Journal articles

AN - SCOPUS:84937533179

VL - 4

JO - Climate Change Economics

JF - Climate Change Economics

SN - 2010-0078

IS - supp01

M1 - 1340007

ER -