Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios
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in: Energy Strategy Reviews, Jahrgang 58, 101646, 01.03.2025.
Publikation: Beiträge in Zeitschriften › Zeitschriftenaufsätze › Forschung › begutachtet
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union?
T2 - Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios
AU - Barner, Lukas
AU - Holz, Franziska
AU - von Hirschhausen, Christian
AU - Kemfert, Claudia
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Authors
PY - 2025/3/1
Y1 - 2025/3/1
N2 - Aligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022–24. However, the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement expires at the end of 2024 and discussions about new sanctions on natural gas as well as the threat of further supply disruptions continue to pose uncertainty for European markets. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM) to investigate the necessity of Russian gas exports for European gas consumption. Our results of different scenarios indicate that the EU's gas consumption can be largely satisfied in all demand and Russian supply scenarios. This result holds also for a complete disruption of Russian exports to the EU thanks to diversification and some demand side response.
AB - Aligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022–24. However, the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement expires at the end of 2024 and discussions about new sanctions on natural gas as well as the threat of further supply disruptions continue to pose uncertainty for European markets. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM) to investigate the necessity of Russian gas exports for European gas consumption. Our results of different scenarios indicate that the EU's gas consumption can be largely satisfied in all demand and Russian supply scenarios. This result holds also for a complete disruption of Russian exports to the EU thanks to diversification and some demand side response.
KW - Equilibrium modeling
KW - Europe
KW - LNG
KW - Natural gas
KW - Russia
KW - Security of supply
KW - Economics
KW - Sustainability Governance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85216587459&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101646
DO - 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101646
M3 - Journal articles
AN - SCOPUS:85216587459
VL - 58
JO - Energy Strategy Reviews
JF - Energy Strategy Reviews
SN - 2211-467X
M1 - 101646
ER -