Convergence of adaptive learning and expectational stability: The case of multiple rational-expectations equilibria

Publikation: Beiträge in ZeitschriftenZeitschriftenaufsätzeForschungbegutachtet

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This paper analyzes the relationship between the expectational stability of rational expectations solutions and the possible convergence of adaptive learning processes. Both concepts are used as selection criteria in the case of multiple rational expectations solutions. Results obtained using recursive least squares lead to the conjecture that there exists a general one-to-one correspondence between these two selection criteria. On the
basis of a simple linear model and a stochastic gradient algorithm as an alternative learning procedure, it is demonstrated that such a conjecture would be incorrect: There are cases in which stochastic gradient learning converges to rational expectations solutions that are not expectationally stable.
OriginalspracheEnglisch
ZeitschriftMacroeconomic Dynamics
Jahrgang4
Ausgabenummer3
Seiten (von - bis)263-288
Anzahl der Seiten26
ISSN1365-1005
DOIs
PublikationsstatusErschienen - 09.2000
Extern publiziertJa

DOI